Ставят ли личностные и демографические различия отдельных инвесторов под сомнение предположение рациональности? Двухэтапное регрессионное моделирование - подход искусственной нейронной сети
en
Научная статья|Математические, статистические и инструментальные методы в экономике
АннотацияПолный текстИсточникиФайлыАвторыАльтметрики
Рэй Самрат
Бизнес-школа ISMS Sankalp
Теория поведенческих финансов рассматривается как альтернатива традиционным финансовым теориям, поскольку она рассматривает инвесторов как нормальных, а не рациональных. Существует множество факторов, которые могут влиять на принятие решений инвесторами. Некоторые из этих факторов были тщательно исследованы, а некоторые остаются неисследованными. Основным направлением существующих исследований оставались поведенческие предубеждения. Помимо предубеждений, личностные черты также определяют инвестиционное поведение инвесторов, которое в основном остается неисследованным. Основной целью настоящего исследования является изучение влияния личностных черт и демографических различий на краткосрочные и долгосрочные инвестиционные решения отдельных инвесторов в Северной Индии. Еще одной целью данного исследования является применение моделирования искусственной нейронной сети в области поведенческих финансов, что поможет исследователям определять инвестиционное поведение более удобным способом. Настоящее исследование носит количественный характер. Для достижения этой цели был проведен опрос среди индивидуальных инвесторов в Северной Индии, и данные были получены при помощи структурированной анкеты. Наряду с двумя регрессионными моделями для проверки гипотезы исследования использовалась модель искусственной нейронной сети (ANN). Данные были проанализированы с помощью программного пакета SPSS. Результаты исследования выявили значительное положительное влияние невроза на принятие решения о краткосрочной инвестиции и значительное негативное влияние при принятии долгосрочного инвестиционного решения. Роль честности в прогнозировании инвестиционных решений была признана невысокой. Также было обнаружено наименьшее влияние демографических факторов при определении как краткосрочных, так и долгосрочных инвестиционных решений, что также было подтверждено с помощью анализа чувствительности в модели ANN.
УДК: 004.032.26:004.383.4
OECD: 5.02
Статья поступила: 30.09.2022
Ajzen, I. (2002), "Perceived behavioral control, self-efficacy, locus of control, and the Theory of planned behavior", Journal of Applied Social Psychology, Vol. 32 (4), 665-683.
Allport, G. W., & Odbert, H. S. (1936), "Trait-names: A psycho-lexical study", Psychological Monographs, Vol. 47 No.1, DOI: 10.1037/h0093360.
Alwosheel, A., van Cranenburgh, S., & Chorus, C. G. (2018), "Is your dataset big enough? Sample size requirements when using artificial neural networks for discrete choice analysis", Journal of Choice Modelling, 28(September 2018), 167-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2018.07.002.
Barber, B. & Odean, T. (2001), "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 261-292.
Chang, C.-H. (2008), "The impact of behavioral pitfalls on investors' decisions: The disposition effect in the Taiwanese warrant market", Social Behavior and Personality: An International Journal, 36(5), 617-634.
Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). NEO PI-R professional manual, psychological assessment resources. Odessa: TX.
Crysel, L. C., Crosier, B. S., & Webster, G. D. (2013), "The dark triad and risk behavior", Personality and Individual Differences, 54(1), 35-40.
Dolan, P., Elliott, A., Metcalfe, R., & Vlaev, I. (2012), "Influencing financial behavior: From changing minds to changing contexts", Journal of Behavioral Finance, 13(2), 126-142.
Durand, R. B., Newby, R. and Sanghani, J. P. (2008), "An Intimate Portrait of the Individual Investor", Journal of Behavioral Finance, 9, 193-208.
EL Idrissi, T., Idri, A., & Bakkoury, Z. (2019), "Systematic map and review of predictive techniques in diabetes self-management", International Journal of Information Management, Vol. 46, 263-277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2018.09.011.
Geetha, M. and Ramesh. M. (2012), "A Study on Relevance of Demographic Factors in Investment Decisions", Perspective of Innovations, Economics and Business, 10(1), 4-27.
Grabble, J.E & Lytton, R.H. (2003), "The development of risk assessment instrument: A follow-up", Financial Service Review, 12(3), 257-274.
Ravi, S., Kulkarni, G.R., Ray, S., Ravisankar, M., krishnan, V.G. and Chakravarthy, D.S.K., 2022. Analysis of user pairing non-orthogonal multiple access network using deep Q-network algorithm for defense applications. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, p.15485129211072548.
Hunjra, Ahmed Imran and Qureshi, Salman and Riaz, Lubna (2016), "Psychological Factors and Investment Decision Making: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis", Journal of Contemporary Management Sciences, 2(1). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3229744.
Ishfaq, Muhammad & Nazir, Mian Sajid & Qamar, Jibran & Usman, Muhammad. (2020), "Cognitive Bias and the Extraversion Personality Shaping the Behavior of Investors", Frontiers in Psychology, Vol. 11, pp. 1-11. DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.556506.
Jaspal Singh, S. C. (2006), "Investor's Preference for Investment in Mutual Funds: Empirical Evidence", The IUP Journal of Behavioural Finance, 7-17.
Kahneman & Odean (1999), "Do Investors trade too much?", American Economic Review, 89, 1279-98.
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, А. (1974), "A Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases", Science, New Series, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979), "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk", Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Kapoor, K., Dwivedi, Y., Piercy, N. C., Lal, B., & Weerakkody, V. (2014), "RFID integrated systems in libraries: Extending TAM model for empirically examining the use", Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 27(6), 731-758. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEIM.10.2013.0079.
Karaca, Y., Moonis, M., Zhang, Y. D., & Gezgez, C. (2019), "Mobile cloud computing based stroke healthcare system", International Journal of Information Management, 45(April 2019), 250-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2018.09.012.
Keith S. Taber (2018), "The Use of Cronbach's Alpha When Developing and Reporting Research Instruments in Science Education", 48(6), 1273-1296.
Kim, C., Oh, E., Shin, N., & Chae, M. (2009), "An empirical investigation of factors affecting ubiquitous computing use and U-business value", International Journal of Information Management, 29(6), 436-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2009.06.003.
Leong, L. Y., Hew, T. S., Ooi, K. B., & Lin, B. (2019), "Do electronic word-of-mouth and elaboration likelihood model influence hotel booking?", Journal of Computer Information Systems, 59(2), 146-160. https://doi.org/10.1080/08874417.2017.1320953.
Lim, V. K. G., & Teo, T. S. H. (1997), "Sex, money and financial hardship: An empirical study of attitudes towards money among undergraduates in Singapore", Journal of Economic Psychology, 18, 369-386.
Lutfi (2010), "The Relationship between Demographic Factors and Investment Decision in Surabaya, journal of Economics", Business and Accountancy Ventura, 13(3).
Lutfi (2016), "The Relationship between Demographic Factors and Investment Decisions in SURABAYA", Journal of Economics, Business and Accountancy Ventura, 213-224.
Maslej, M. M., Oatley, K., & Mar, R. A. (2017), "Creating fictional characters: The role of experience, personality, and social processes", Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity and the Arts, 11(4), 487.
Mayfield, S. and Shapiro, M. (2010), "Gender and risk: women, risk taking and risk aversion", Gender in Management: An International Journal, 25(7), 586-604.
MS, & Patel, MS. Bhoomi & Vasudevmodi, Dr. (2017), "Impact of Demographic Factors on Investment Decisions: An Empirical Study from South Gujrat region", InternationalJournal of Latest Engineering and Management Research, 2(12), 1-08, ISSN: 2455-4847.
Muhammad, N.M.N; and Ismail, N. (2009), "Investment Decision making Style: Are Malaysian Investors Rational Decision Makers?" Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business. 1(3), 96-108.
Nauman Sadiq, Hafiz Muhammad Ishaq, M. (2014), "The Effect of Demographic Factors on the Behaviour of investors during the choice of investments: Evidence from Twin Cities of Pakistan", Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 14(3), 46-56, ISSN: 2249-4588.
Noe, T., & Vulkan, N. (2017), "The role of personality in financial decisions and financial crises".
Larrick, R. P., & Boles, T. L. (1995). "Avoiding regret in decisions with feedback: A negotiation example", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63(1), 87-97. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1995.1064.
Oehler, A., Wendt, S., Wedlich, F., Horn, M. (2018), "Investors' personality influences investment decisions: Experimental evidence on extraversion and neuroticism", Journal of Behavioral Finance, 19(1), 30-48.
Ozmen, O., & Sumer, Z. H. (2011), "Predictors of risk-taking behaviors among Turkish ¨ adolescents", Personality and Individual Differences, 50(1), 4-9.
P. Bhanu Sireesha & Ch. Sreelaxmi (2013), "Impact of Demographics on select Investment Avenues: A case study of twin cities of Hyderabad and Secunderabad, India", International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services Management Research, 2(6).
Pai, F. Y., & Huang, K. I. (2011), "Applying the Technology Acceptance Model to the introduction of healthcare information systems", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(4), 650-660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.11.007.
Patel, A & Dattani, M (2017), "An Empirical study on Private Equity fund Manager's decision making criteria's and its impact on the selection of Investment proposals", Indian Journal of Commerce & Management Studies, 8(3). DOI: 10.18843/ijcms/v8i3/06.
Raza Ahmad, S., Jahangir, S., Zaigham, H.S., Shafi, S. (2013), "Investment preferences and risk level: Behavior of salaried individuals", IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 10(1), 68-78.
Sadiq, M.N., Khan, R.A.A., Bashir, M.K. (2018), "Individuals demographic differences and financial satisfaction: Evidence from Pakistan", Business and Economics Journal, 9(3), 1-7, DOI: 10.4172/2151-6219.1000369.
Sadi, R., Asl, H. G., Rostami, M. R, Gholipour, F. (2011), "Behavioral Finance: The Explanation of Investor's Personality and Perceptual Biases Effects on Financial Decisions", International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5), 234-241. http://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v3n5p234.
Schwartz, H. (1998). "Rationality Gone Awry? Decision Making Inconsistent with Economic and Financial Theory West-port", CT: Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc.
Ray, S. (2021). "Can economics of olfactory branding be replicated through historical sensation: cases from college street booksellers?" Вестник Бурятского государственного университета. Экономика и менеджмент, 3, pp.66-73.
Роков, А.И., Тенгиз, М. and Рэй, С. (2021). "Энергетические проблемы в новых экономических условиях". E-Scio, 9(60), pp.324-332.
Shefrin, H. and Statman, M. (2009), "Striking regulatory irons while hot". Journal of Investment Management 7, 29-42
Shleifer, A. (2000), "Inefficient markets: An introduction to behavioural finance", Oxford University Press.
Bangare, J.L., Kapila, D., Nehete, P.U., Malwade, S.S., Sankar, K. and Ray, S., 2022, February. "Comparative Study on Various Storage Optimisation Techniques in Machine Learning based Cloud Computing System". 2nd International Conference on Innovative Practices in Technology and Management (ICIPTM) (Vol. 2, pp. 53-57). IEEE.
Tan, G. W. H., Ooi, K. B., Leong, L. Y., & Lin, B. (2014), "Predicting the drivers of behavioral intention to use mobile learning: A hybrid SEM-Neural Networks approach", Computers in Human Behavior, 36(July 2014), 198-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2014.03.052.
Thaler, R. (1999), "Mental Accounting Matters". Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(3), 183-206.
Teo, A. C., Tan, G. W. H., Ooi, K. B., Hew, T. S., & Yew, K. T. (2015), "The effects of convenience and speed in m-payment", Industrial Management & Data Systems, 115(2), 311-331. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMDS-08-2014-0231.
Williams, D. G. (1992), "Dispositional optimism, neuroticism, and extraversion", Personality and Individual Differences, 13(4), 475-477.
Times citedRecent citationsField Citation RatioRelative Citation Ratio
© Статья. Рэй Самрат, 2022.